What might the economic battle between Trump and Harris mean for Ireland?

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What might the economic battle between Trump and Harris mean for Ireland?
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If Trump slashed the US rate of corporate tax to 15%, it would wipe out Ireland’s advantage in attracting companies, while tariffs hitting the pharma sector could also be damaging

The two candidates in the US presidential election have put forward different policy platforms of vital interest to Ireland given the State’s reliance on inward investment from America and the wider health of the world economy. Here are the key things you need to know:: Political election promises always need to be assessed sceptically. But in the US this is even more the case in presidential campaigns.

The Harris plan, on the other hand, would underpin the tax reasons for US companies to continue to invest abroad in countries like Ireland, as 28 per cent is a high rate by international standards. Could Trump push this through? Like most areas of economic policy, Congress has the power to regulate foreign trade and, for example, approve new trade treaties. However, when last in office Trump used special presidential emergency powers to introduce tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, avoiding the need for Congressional scrutiny. He was also able to withdraw from a number of trade deals.

For Ireland the massive exports of the US pharma sector from Ireland to the US would – presumably – be covered by tariffs, along with other sales in areas like drinks. The impact of this is hard to guesstimate as many of the pharma supply chains are driven in part by tax planning. However, it would presumably reduce export volumes, could hit tax payments in Ireland and also affect longer term investment here in the sector.

The spat between the EU and China this week, with China threatening to examine dairy imports from Europe, including from Ireland, in return for an EU move to put tariffs on Chinese EVs is a sign of what is to come, and how Ireland can be affected. Already the export of chips from Ireland to China has been affected by a sales ban on some advanced products introduced by the Biden administration. Trump would ramp up these tensions, but they will be there whoever wins.

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