One of our data journalists picks four books that will help
do opinion polls matter? They are conducted everywhere, trumpeted by political parties and media outlets, at least when election campaigns are afoot. Yet readers typically know little about how polls are run. How were the data gathered? Who pays for the surveys—and so may have a thumb on the scales? By what methods are the numbers crunched? Like polls themselves, polling blunders are also widespread.
The popular history of polling is a story of failures. One of the most notable came in the build-up to the presidential election of 1948, when over-confident pollsters declared that Thomas Dewey was destined to win. Instead Harry Truman was comfortably re-elected. Such is the sort of tale that W. Joseph Campbell relishes, dedicating his book to the most notable screw-ups in polling history. These include the presidential elections of 2004 and 2016 .
Before they get to grips with polls, Sarah Igo argues, readers first need an understanding of what lies behind them. Thus she offers stories about the early days of polling in America, notably tales about George Gallup, perhaps the best-known pollster of all. The meat of her book, however, concerns the long arc of academic research, developed over many decades, that has helped to provide techniques for better studies of the masses.
When George Gallup wrote “The Pulse of Democracy” , his best-known work on polls, he argued that they help to buttress democracy. Their great value, he said, is in revealing citizens’ preferences at times other than election season. For when new issues come up for debate, it is polls that tell leaders what the public cares about. In “Numbered Voices”, Susan Herbst supports Gallup’s claim.
This book by Elliott Morris, one of our data journalists, on polling and its crucial role in modern democracy, was published in July.called it a “valuable history of polling that examines the reasons for recent failures while arguing that it remains a vital tool.”
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