When Will Humanity Become a Type I Civilization? by BrianKoberlein
Three types of Kardeshev civilizations. Credit: Wikipedia, cc-by-sa 3.0
This question is studied in a paper recently posted to the arxiv. The paper looks at the three primary sources of energy: fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewable, and calculates their potential growth over time. On the one hand, reaching Type I would seem pretty easy. Make the production of energy your top priority, and you’ll get there in the end. But each type of energy source has its limitations.
That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The Kardashev Scale is a very blunt tool for measuring the scale of human technology. While advanced civilzations require significant energy, we have seen how advances in low-power computing and increased efficience allow us to decrease or flatten our energy consumption while continuing to advance technologically. While this study shows how we could become a Type I civilzation, it’s possible that we’ll be truly advanced when we realize we don’t need to.
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