When Russia invaded Ukraine, many security analysts expected an unprecedented level of cyberattacks—which so far haven’t materialized.
When Russia invaded Ukraine last month, many security analysts were expecting a level of cyberwar never seen before, because of Russia’s history of such aggression.
Nature spoke to researchers about the role of cyberwarfare in the conflict, and why it is surprising them. So why hasn’t Russia used cyberwarfare, as expected? One theory is that the decision to invade Ukraine was held at the highest level and didn’t trickle down the chain of command until it became too late to deploy significant cyberattacks, which can take months to organize, says Herr.
Zabierek’s leading hypothesis is that Russia is holding back to avoid escalation or spillover effects beyond Ukraine, which could prompt a response from the West. Cyberattacks can easily spread. In 2017, Russia-linked hackers launched NotPetya, malware targeting financial software used by businesses in Ukraine.
Health-care systems and power networks could be vulnerable. In 2021, non-state hackers, possibly in Russia, used ransomware to shut down the US Colonial oil pipeline for days. “This is the kind of thing we can expect—an attack that’s enough to cripple infrastructure for a while and create disruption,” says Taddeo. On 12 February, before the invasion, the US Cyber Security and Infrastructure Agency warned organizations to prepare for cyber-attack.
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