For ten meetings in a row, over a period of little more than a year, the European Central Bank embarked on the most ambitious rate hiking cycle in its existence. This week it opted to take a break. Most analysts speculate that the bank is done hiking rates. And some believe rate cuts are coming.
It has certainly been a busy eighteen months for the Monetary Policy Committee of the European Central Bank.
Arguments around the inflationary surge being 'transitory' came to a full stop when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 sending oil and gas prices soaring. The language Christine Lagarde used on the day had taken a decidedly hawkish turn together with the decision to abandon 'forward guidance' on rate hikes.
The latter argument appeared to prevail. Not even the collapse of US lender, Silicon Valley Bank - as well as other smaller US banks - and warnings about the prospect of 'contagion' in the wider banking sector was enough to prompt the ECB into pausing its rate hiking cycle in March of this year.
"Inflation is still expected to stay too high for too long, and domestic price pressures remain strong," Ms Lagarde said this week as the bank paused its hiking cycle.If 'transitory inflation' was the buzz phrase around the start of 2022, today it has been replaced with 'higher for longer' - the reference to rates remaining elevated for a more prolonged period that might have been expected previously.
"It all comes down to the data between now and the December meeting at which point we may get forecasts that enable the ECB to at least discuss when rate cuts could be appropriate," OANDA's Craig Erlam said. They have since settled back after a resolution of the pay dispute was agreed but that was quickly followed by price surges on oil markets on foot of a decision by Saudi Arabia to cut production.
For tracker mortgage holders, who have endured each and every rate hike since July of last year, the relief will be particularly acute.
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