After two big offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson, Ukraine’s options depend on how much it has left in the tank. No one knows for sure
ago analysts wondered whether Ukraine had the capacity for a big offensive. Now they ask how far it will go. Ukraine’s army has swept through north-eastern Kharkiv province, liberating huge swathes of territory. In the south it is squeezing Russian units trapped on the west bank of the Dnieper river in Kherson. Russia’s army is depleted, disoriented and demoralised. But Ukraine’s general staff must decide whether to husband their resources or press home their advantage with a third attack.
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, began this war by recognising the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic , a pair of separatist statelets armed and backed by Russia since 2014. The republics have been the main rallying cause for Russia’s nationalist zealots, such as Igor Strelkov, a former commander in Donbas, and Zakhar Prilepin, a writer-turned-warmonger.
“I don’t want to say too much about Ukrainian reserves for obvious reasons,” said one Western official, speaking on September 12th, “but they do have some elements held in reserve which they can deploy forward.” But Ukraine, he notes, like Russia, faces a dilemma over when and where to send these—“what to reinforce and where to accept greater risks”. Other officials warn of the dangers of Ukrainian overreach., where a separate offensive is about to enter its third week.
Ukraine opted instead for the campaign in Kherson, along with the more opportunistic attack on Kharkiv, which initially had much more modest aims. But it still wants to shatter Russian lines in the south. “The big Zaporizhia push to Melitopol is still on unless we see a wider collapse of Russian front lines,” says Franz-Stefan Gady of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank, referring to the city that lies roughly equidistant between Kherson and Mariupol.
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