Which global estimate of COVID deaths is the most reliable?

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Which global estimate of COVID deaths is the most reliable?
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It's critical to get an accurate count of pandemic deaths.

The 5 phases of COVID’s endgameAnother challenge is that the criteria used to define COVID-19 deaths isn’t necessarily consistent from one location to the next, says Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health.

In such patchwork systems, death counts can jump quite a bit from one week to the next as some jurisdictions lag behind others in reporting data. “You can generally assume if there’s a two- or threefold increase in how many deaths are reported on a given day that it’s probably not the result of a lot of people dying then,” Lessler says. “It probably has something to do with reporting.”

Excess mortality doesn’t just capture fatal COVID-19 cases. It also includes deaths that occurred because hospitals became overwhelmed, or because people were afraid to seek treatment for other issues or schedule routine screenings. Furthermore, the estimates account for deaths that COVID-19 prevented. The early pandemic’s containment measures resulted in fewer traffic accidents and decreased the transmission of other diseases such as influenza.

with the most excess deaths. For places with sparse mortality data, the agency used other measures such as the country’s COVID-19 containment efforts and population demographics to estimate excess deaths.

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