An inversion in the yield curve is considered to be a reliable predictor of a recession.
One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession is shining brighter.
Usually, longer-term Treasurys offer higher yields than shorter-term ones, resulting in a chart with an upward sloping line. That’s in part because investors typically demand higher yields to lock away their money for longer, given the possibility of future rate increases by the Fed and the risk of inflation.
Others market observers, including officials at the Federal Reserve, view the relationship between the 3-month and 10-year Treasurys to be the more important one. Every recession in the past 60 years has been preceded by an inversion of the yield curve between the three-month and 10-year Treasurys.
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