Building a cleaner and safer energy system is an epic, risky and daunting task. But would you rather rely on Vladimir Putin’s Russia?
Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s dictator, perhaps to get more oil from a state which in 2005 supplied 4% of the world’s crude.
Yet although geopolitics will hasten the climate-driven energy transition, they will not make it risk-free. The transition will disrupt some economies and cause new dependence on others. To gauge this Two problems therefore stand out. First, the geopolitics of shrinking the oil industry are fraught. As Western firms withdraw for environmental reasons and in response to high costs, the market share ofplus Russia will rise from 45% to 57% by 2040, giving them more clout. Higher-cost producers such as Angola and Azerbaijan face a shock as they are squeezed out. The world map will be peppered with distressed ex-petrostates.
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