Author NIALL FERGUSON: Why I'm more optimistic for Britain in 2022 than almost anywhere else
Many restrictions make no sense when a much smaller share of the population is truly ill. What's the point of travel restrictions if you can get negative test results in the early stages of being infectious?
There are economic surprises in store for us, too – surprises which will revolve around one word: inflation. Most economists, especially those at central banks, gravely underestimated the surge in consumer prices we saw in 2021. What happens next, as they begin reducing their purchases of government bonds and start raising short-term interest rates to control inflation?
The effective closure of China's borders may suit Xi politically as he prepares to be formally anointed as leader for life at the 20th Communist Party Congress, but it's yet another economic headwind. American voters thought they could stop the pandemic by getting rid of Donald Trump. Surprise: more people have died of Covid on Biden's watch, despite the abundant availability of the vaccines developed under Trump.
There is a very real possibility that Trump will actually win by a decisive margin, as voters revolt against the forever pandemic, high inflation, violent crime, border chaos, and 'wokeism' in education.Elsewhere in the world, however, voters will get a chance to replace their leaders. Perhaps these foreign leaders envy Boris Johnson, who in theory does not have to face his country's voters until 2024.
Russian President Vladimir Putin looks rather more durable and now seems intent on emulating the greatest victory of his idol, Tsar Peter the Great – by winning a war in Ukraine.
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