Efforts to persuade people to wear masks do not do any better among Democrats than they do among Republicans. eugen_dimant explains why.
with the Behavior Change for Good Initiative , the Behavioral Insights Team , ideas42, and the Center for Advanced Hindsight), we evaluated whether academics, behavioral scientists, and laypeople were able to predict the results of the interventions to promote wearing a mask. To do this, we set up a survey in which respondents were shown the intervention messages from the original survey.
We found that forecasters are able to predict the high baseline attitudes and intentions towards wearing a mask, both for Democrats and Republicans. However, they could not accurately infer the effectiveness of the interventions. In particular, they expected the interventions to have a larger effect on Democrats than on Republicans, relative to a no-intervention baseline.
We also found differences in forecasting abilities across the three groups of forecasters. Both behavioral scientists and academics do better than laypeople. Nevertheless, none of them could predict the remarkably limited impact of nudges on mask-wearing.Source: Eugen DimantDespite the moral framing behind them, none of the nudges persuaded Republicans or Democrats to wear masks, compared to a control condition. The interventions were not able to override the deep-seated partisanship in the U.S.
One final insight from our work is that—given the polarizing nature of this topic—nudges might simply not be enough and more social and structural changes are needed. AsReferences Gelfand, M., Li, R., Stamkou, E., Pieper, D., Denison, E., Fernandez, J., … Dimant, E. . Persuading Republicans and Democrats to Comply with Mask Wearing: An Intervention Tournament.
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