'Moscow is aware it now has real PR problems in poorer countries,' writes Ian Bremmer
in October 2022, had provided big benefits for poorer countries struggling with high food prices already exacerbated by COVID, higher energy prices, and then by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Now, Moscow claims the right to treat any foreign ship heading for a Ukrainian port as a legitimate target of war, making it all but impossible for outsiders to protect grain ships and pushing up shipping and insurance costs.
But there are several reasons why Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s food exports probably won’t trigger an emergency for global food prices and the political turmoil that often comes with it. First, Ukraine is already sending larger amounts of food over land and by river. Data from the United Nations and USDA show that about 47% of the country’s wheat exports, 40% of its corn shipments, and 67% of exported sunflower oil now reach global markets via Europe through those routes.
Second, following a record harvest in recent months, Russia now has more wheat and grain to export. Its own Black Sea exports will continue, easing some of the upward pressure on global food prices. Despite Ukrainian threats to attack Russian shipping, its high spending on its own shipping and insurance costs will limit what Ukraine can afford to attempt.
There are caveats here. Any fall in the global supply of agriculture products could persuade some governments to restrict their own food exports to protect food security at home. That could sharply raise food prices for everybody else. We’re already seeing a surge in tensions between Ukraine and some of its nearest European neighbors.
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