Why weather may be a missing link in flu prediction

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Why weather may be a missing link in flu prediction
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Unlocking how the weather influences the virus could go a long way in helping to develop measures to prevent its spread.

also linked big weather swings in the fall to spikes in flu during winter. But these linkages are still somewhat tentative and clouded by other influences. Weather is only one piece of this intricate puzzle of predicting flu transmission. Even so, scientists are working to one day integrate weather forecasts into disease-monitoring models.The flu follows a predictable pattern and hits its peak in January and February annually in the United States.

In his analysis of previous lab studies, he found a significant connection with humidity changes and how long the flu virus survived The flu “virus doesn’t stay viable as long when conditions are more humid, and stays more viable when conditions are drier,” Shaman said in an interview. “It seems a little counterintuitive — we often think if things dry out they’re not going to survive, but that’s for bacteria and other cells. Viruses are different,” saidBut it gets complicated. Marr’s research also shows flu survival is elevated at both low and high extremes of humidity. At high humidity, she said, minimal evaporation means respiratory droplets and aerosols survive intact, so there is little trigger to displace the virus.

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