.ianbremmer: Will China try to stop Russia’s war in Ukraine?
that, depending on how long it lasts, the war could drive food prices between 8% and 20% higher this year.) All these commodities have become much more expensive for China and everyone else since the Russians crossed Ukraine’s borders.
The invasion is also damaging China’s international reputation. Xi understands that many Europeans and Americans are ready to tag China’s as Russia’s accomplice. On the eve of last month’s Winter Olympic Games in China,and made a big show of their emerging “friendship,” which their joint statement claimed had “no limits.” Two weeks later, Russian invaded Ukraine. If Xi knew what Putin had in mind, what does that say about what sort of future partner he might be for Europe and the U.S.
Xi also knows that Russia is much less valuable commercial partner. In 2021, China’s trade with Russia topped out at $147 billion. Compare that with $756 billion with the U.S. and $828 billion with the E.U. U.S. and European companies have also served as a source of invaluable investment and have provided access to vitally important new technologies that China will need to extend its economic rise and political stability.
In addition, though China has many clients and commercial partners, it could use a like-minded and powerful friend. For years, it’s only true ally has been North Korea. Russia is a much more valuable sidekick. While Americans treat the end of the Cold War as settled history, Xi and Putin can talk over the collapse of the Soviet Union and China’s Tiananmen Square brush with civil war in similarly bitter terms.
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