Two new studies published in Nature Climate Change suggest that last year's record warmth may signal a long-term shift to average temperatures above 1.5 degrees Celsius, possibly breaching the Paris Agreement target sooner than anticipated. This increase in global temperatures heightens the risk of irreversible climate impacts and increasingly catastrophic weather events.
World may already be in period where Paris climate pact target of keeping temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees is breached sooner than anticipated
In a separate but related study scientists suggest the 12 months at 1.5 degrees “signals earlier than expected breach” of the Paris climate agreement, while exceeding that threshold will be inevitable without a step change in efforts to cut greenhouse gases. The studies were led by Dr Emanuele Bevacqua of Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Germany and Dr Alex J Cannon of the research division in Environment and Climate Change Canada.
A Met Office forecast for the coming year has predicted levels of “atmospheric concentration of CO₂ is now inconsistent with pathways keeping to 1.5 degrees only rapid and strong measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions will keep us from passing the first line of defence within the Paris agreement”.
Fixating on 1.5 degrees, she said, “has the real risk of reducing actions, demotivating all of us – people, civic society, industry – to give up on trying. The consequence of a lack of ambition is that we will stay on the warming pathways we are currently on, which leads to nearly 3-degree warming globally, locally much more. Such warming has immense and in parts irreversible consequences for nature and people”.
Climate Change Paris Agreement Global Warming Temperature Rise Greenhouse Gases
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