But it shows that Russia is a mafia state
, the mercenary leader who mounted a short-lived mutiny in Russia in June. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, “is generally someone who thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold,” he said. “In my experience Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback so I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retribution.” On August 23rd, precisely two months after that mutiny, Mr Prigozhin’s jet plunged to the ground.
The cause of the crash is not yet known. Eyewitnesses reported hearing explosions prior to the incident, giving rise to speculation that it may have been shot down by air defences. One possibility, though few online commenters seemed inclined to believe it, is that it was an accident. Ukraine has conducted 15 drone attacks against Moscow and the surrounding area since May 3rd, including strikes on seven successive nights to August 23rd.
Mr Prigozhin’s death is likely to have a negligible effect on the front lines in Ukraine. General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of general staff, whom Mr Prigozhin routinely attacked, has “brought some order to the military chaos of last year”, says John Foreman, Britain’s defence attaché in Moscow until last year. Wagner forces had been shoved aside after they led the conquest of Bakhmut in May.
The biggest ripples will be those inside Russia. If Mr Prigozhin was killed on Mr Putin’s orders, it would reinforce the president’s image as a vengeful strongman willing to dispense with procedure and law. He first caught the imagination of the Russian public as Russia’s president with a memorable pledge to “catch [Chechen rebels] on the toilet” and “wipe them out in the outhouse”.
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