Climatefactors predict future mosquito activity TheLancet
The Sri Lanka Ministry of Health leads a proactive mosquito control program, known as the Civil-Military Cooperation , to prevent dengue in partnership with military and police forces. Here, Public Health Inspector Gayan Liyanage supervises the process with naval officers, health workers, and community members. Credit: Mr. Gayan Liyanage
"Dengue transmission is expected to intensify due to climate change. If we can use climate and weather data to predict seasonal patterns of mosquitos, this timely information would allow public health authorities to proactively manage mosquito control operations," said study author Yesim Tozan, assistant professor of global health at NYU School of Global Public Health.
All three climate variables predicted mosquito activity, but with different time lags. More rainfall—which often led to outdoor containers filling with water, creating mosquito breeding sites—predicted a greater prevalence of mosquitoes within the same month. Hotter temperatures were associated with increases in mosquitoes one to two months later. The warmer ocean temperatures of El Niño events predicted increases in mosquitoes with a five- to six-month delay.
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