A big problem is the growing gap between emerging-market and rich-world profits
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskAmerica’s interest-rate rises—and the expectation of more to come this year—have not helped emerging-market economies, especially those with large import bills and dollar-denominated debts. Over the past decade, though, the performance of the dollar has been mixed and interest rates low. In the same period, the.
Several factors explain this. For commodity-exporting countries like Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico, enormous margins before the collapse of Lehman Brothers reflected sky-high prices of commodities as varied as soyabeans, oil, coal and nickel, rather than good management. Since then, prices have come back down to earth. Even at the Bloomberg Commodity Index’s recent peak, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it sat 43% below its high in that period.
The change in which countries make up the index, something investors hoped would give them more exposure to fast-growing economies, has done little to help. In 2005 four markets—Brazil, South Africa, South Korea and Taiwan—each made up larger shares of the index than China. Now, Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong and the mainland account for a third of the index, by far the largest share.China index sits, astonishingly, below its peak in dollar terms, which it hit in 2007.
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