Israel’s intelligence services are not yet convinced that Iran has decided to break out into weapons-grade enrichment or that it has taken the key steps towards weaponisation
for a nuclear weapon in just 12 days. It would need to use only three advanced-centrifuge cascades and half of its current stock of 60%-enriched uranium.for four more nuclear weapons in a month. In another two months, using its stock of low-enriched uranium , it could get enough material for two more weapons. It would take about six months to test and deploy a bomb for a crude delivery system, such as a plane or a ship. A missile-delivered warhead might be feasible in a year or two.
Mr Hokayem thinks that the assessment in most of the six countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council , including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is that an isolated Russia, keen to buy drones and missiles from Iran, will become a far more valuable transactional partner.
The result is a kind of weary but nonetheless dangerous equilibrium whereby the regional powers are trying to gain some leverage over Iran by investing in its economy, making goodwill gestures such as readmitting Iran’s Syrian protégé back into the Arab League, and deferring to China—the one real influence on Iran—whenever possible. The smaller Gulf states plainly accepted the Chinese-brokered restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March.
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