Given that such a traditionally red state upheld abortion rights, it is likely that most others would, too. Our analysis of the results suggests similar referendums would probably succeed in 41 of America’s 50 states
, dealing a blow to conservative efforts to outlaw the practice. Kansans voted by 59% to 41% to block the amendment, so that abortion will remain legal in the state up to the 22nd week of pregnancy. That compares with the 56% of the state’s electorate that voted for Donald Trump, the anti-abortion candidate, in the presidential election in 2020. Given that such a traditionally red state upheld abortion rights, it is likely that most others would, too.
The result was caused by two factors. First, many Republicans oppose rolling back abortion protections. Combined with Democrats and political independents, they are enough to block new restrictions even in very red states.
The second factor is that Democrats and women have become increasingly concerned about abortion since the Supreme Court struck downearlier this year. That has made them more likely to vote. According to YouGov’s data, in January 2021 nearly 70% of both Democrats and Republicans believed that abortion was a “somewhat” or “very” important issue. That has now increased to more than 85% for Democrats, while just 65% of Republicans would agree.
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