Series shows enthusiasm for a Border poll, but populations far apart on many other issues
Both polls surveyed more than 1,000 people each in Northern Ireland and the Republic and the margin of error is estimated at plus or minus 3 per cent.
But once you begin to look under the bonnet of the polling numbers it is clear that in both societies views about the political and constitutional future are in flux. In Northern Ireland, the identification of religious background and politics is weakening and— the growing group in the middle who class themselves as neither orange nor green — will ultimately be crucial if a vote happens. There is a huge number of “don’t knows”, nearly a fifth of all voters.
If those who favour Irish unity want to make progress towards making their objective a reality and success, the research suggests they face two tasks, distinct but related: they need to prevail upon the “persuadables” in the North to vote for a united Ireland and they need to convince the “unpersuadables” — the
— to moderate their position and accept the result of a referendum even if the unionist side loses. On both fronts, the united Irelanders have their work cut out.
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