India’s faith in Russia, by far its biggest arms supplier, has ebbed, especially since the invasion of Ukraine
Russian weapons cost less than Western ones, and Russia imposes fewer conditions on their use and fusses less about technology transfer. However, Russia’s largely state-controlled arms industry has prioritised Russian forces in Ukraine over even its biggest customers. India is still awaiting delivery of two of the five-400 surface-to-air missile systems for which it agreed to pay Russia $5.4bn in 2018.
But reducing India’s dependence on Russia will take time. India will still need Russia for some technology, such as the nuclear reactors for submarines, that it will not get elsewhere. Fully reshaping India’s armed forces with Western and home-made equipment could take decades rather than years, even if India buys no big new weapons systems from Russia.
India has also shown itself in the past to be a difficult customer. After France reached an agreement to sell Rafale fighter jets to India in 2012, it took nearly nine years for the first planes to arrive. During that time the order was cut from 126 to 36, partly because the original manufacturer, Dassault, feared thatwould struggle to make the complex plane under licence. Over the years, every aspect of the deal became mired in mutual accusations of cronyism and corruption.
Mr Austin’s proposed roadmap sets America and India on what may still be a long and winding path. But the map’s very existence suggests both sides see the relationship as vital. And, adds Mr Roy-Chaudhury, the direction of travel is clear.
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