Pat Leahy: Two signposts to an early election: Sinn Féin’s troubles and a glimpse of Micheál Martin’s election posters

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Pat Leahy: Two signposts to an early election: Sinn Féin’s troubles and a glimpse of Micheál Martin’s election posters
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Mattie McGrath spoke for the whole Dáil – an unusual occurrence, this – and maybe the rest of us too when he told the Chamber on Tuesday that all the election speculation was driving everyone 'demented'

Mattie McGrath spoke for the whole Dáil – an unusual occurrence, this – and maybe the rest of us too when he told the Chamber on Tuesday that all the election speculation was driving everyone ‘demented’

Officials are working to the following dates for the passage of the Finance Bill: second stage in the Dáil – next Wednesday, October 16th; committee stage – November 5th; report and final stage – November 20th; Seanad – November 27th; Seanad committee stage – December 4th; Seanad report and final stage – December 11th.

If there is going to be a November – or even early December – election, this process has to be concertinaed into the next month. Legislative and constitutional requirements mean that a dissolution of the Dáil must take place between 18 and 25 days before polling day. So if you want polling day on, say November 15th, you count back to October 24th for the latest possible dissolution and October 16th for the earliest.

I think Harris wants an early election because it is obviously in his interests. Martin has to decide whether he will accede to that request, if and when it comes. And then Harris has to decide what he will do if Martin turns him down and holds out for 2025. Finally, one of the main reasons for the whole idea – the difficulties of the Government’s principal opponents – only intensified this week.

Sinn Féin’s position is a difficult one because it rests on propositions that are hard to believe: that nobody noticed the press officer they had chucked out because he was a suspected sex offender even when he was straight in front of them at a photocall attended by no more than a handful of people; that the HR manager never brought the references to her bosses’ attention when the British Heart Foundation raised them with her; and, most of all, that in a party that likes to know what is...

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