New polls and deliberative forums conducted by The Irish Times and the ARINS project reveal a growing trend of support for Irish unity in Northern Ireland. While a border poll would still likely be defeated in the North, the number of those who support unification has increased significantly over the past three years.
Two deliberative forums were held, one in each jurisdiction, to allow participants to discuss the constitutional issue and related issues. While the poll suggests that a border poll would be soundly defeated in the North and passed comfortably in the South, the results over the past three years of annual polls suggest a rise in support for Irish unity in the North.
In addition, there are signs that “losers’ consent” among unionists – the willingness to accept the result of a referendum they would lose – is increasing. A growing number of unionists also support the holding of a border poll, perhaps because they could expect to win a referendum if held now. Trends show a rise in support for Irish unity among Northern voters. The project is a collaboration between The Irish Times and the ARINS (Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South) project, which is a joint project of the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame in the United States. As part of the North and South research project, two simultaneous opinion polls have been conducted each year for the past three years. The polls were conducted by Ipsos in the North and Ipsos B & A in the South and surveyed more than 1,000 voters at multiple points across both jurisdictions. In addition this year, two deliberative forums – a managed discussion among a group – have been held, one in each jurisdiction, to allow participants to discuss the constitutional issue and related questions in a structured setting. Both the surveys and deliberative forums took place in the second half of 2024.Asked how they would vote in a referendum on Irish unity, almost two-thirds of voters in the Republic say they would support unification. This number has remained largely consistent over the three years of the survey. In Northern Ireland, just under half of all respondents (48 per cent) say they would vote against unity, while 34 per cent say they would vote in favour. The pro-unity number has increased from 27 per cent in the first year of the survey in 2022, and is mainly accounted for by a sharp rise in the proportion of Northern Catholics saying they would vote for a united Ireland – up from 55 per cent in 2022 to 63 per cent in 2024. However, almost a fifth – 18 per cent – of Northern Catholics say they would vote against unity. Northern Protestants remain strongly opposed to Irish unity, with 82 per cent saying they would vote against it, and just seven per cent in favour. However, Northern Protestants have grown more open to the idea that a referendum should be held – with 44 per cent in favour, and 37 per cent opposed. This may be because unionists believe they would win a referendum and so settle the question, at least for now. If a referendum were held, and were lost by the pro-Union side, the proportion of Northern Protestants who would find the outcome “almost impossible to accept” continues to decline, though it remains sizeable. In the first survey in 2022, almost a third (32 per cent) said it would be “almost impossible to accept”; this year, that has declined to 20 per cent. The ARINS/Irish Times project aims to provide independent and unbiased information on the state of public opinion in both jurisdictions on the constitutional future of the island, on what influences the views of people, how they might change in the future and what a united Ireland – if it were ever to happen – might look like
Irish Unity Border Poll Northern Ireland Republic Of Ireland Public Opinion ARINS Project The Irish Times Constitutional Future
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