Scramble to be Raisi’s replacement could be unseemly, but Iran’s regime won’t soften

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Scramble to be Raisi’s replacement could be unseemly, but Iran’s regime won’t soften
Ebrahim-RaisiAli-Khamenei
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Reformists and candidates who do not enjoy the approval of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are certain to be disqualified from presidential election

Iran ian women gather at Valiasr Square in central Tehran to mourn the death of President Ebrahim Raisi and foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash on Sunday. Photograph: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Imagesand foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in a helicopter crash. The immediate succession was seamless, with vice-president Mohammed Mokhbar becoming interim president and deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani taking over external affairs.

Under Iran’s constitution an election should take place within 50 days of the president’s death. Competitors will be approved by the unelected 12-member Guardian Council which vets candidates for all key offices. The council is certain to disqualify reformists and candidates who do not enjoy the approval of Khamenei who is determined to maintain Principlist power.

In the region, Iran will maintain its support for Palestine and Hamas, Lebanon’s Hizbullah, Yemen’s Houthis, Iraq’s Shia militias, and the Syrian government. Tehran will also follow Raisi’s policy of cultivating Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and normalising relations with Arab states.

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