But it will look different, both in the short term and the long term
The urge to travel is unlikely to be permanently dimmed by covid-19 even if the means to do it suffers a long-lasting hit and some destinations take years to recover. All forecasts reckon on travel and tourism returning to prepandemic levels over the next few years and then continuing on a path of growth. Looking back, there will appear to have been a “blip in demand but no impact over 20 years,” says Michael Khan of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy.
The hope is that vaccines will bring a return of something approaching normality despite the emergence of a more transmissible form of covid-19 in the final weeks of 2020, bringing another round of travel restrictions as countries rapidly banned visitors from affected countries.
More airlines, the main means of foreign travel, will fail and others will remain under closer state control. Some long-haul fares will rise and short-haul carriers go bust. But this should create new opportunities for low-cost competitors, helping keep prices in check. Health will become as central to travel as an airline ticket and passport. The apps and platforms that will keep people safe by allowing sharing of health status should also help make travel easier and smoother.
Despite recent rapid growth, foreign travel is still an experience for the few, not the many. As the world gets richer and populations age, the numbers with the time and the means to take a holiday abroad will keep growing. As aviation bosses are quick to point out, there is a vast untapped market: around 80% of the world’s population has never set foot on an airliner. A trip abroad is still a rarity for most.
Further step changes in the price and speed of travel, opening up more out-of-the-way places and allowing more choice, will change the whole business yet again. This could come most obviously from supersonic travel, which despite the commercial failure of Concorde seems likely to return, lopping several hours off long flights. Some startups are already developing small supersonic corporate jets.
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