Despite his strong electoral victory, Donald Trump's ability to enact his agenda, particularly regarding immigration, will be significantly constrained by logistical and legal limitations, as well as internal divisions within the Republican Party.
Though it will be little consolation to those who are deported or who must live in fear, Trump will face significant logistical and legal limits to his stated aim of deporting a million migrants a year. Donald Trump comes into office in a very strong position as the first Republican since 2004 to win the national popular vote.
Photograph: Doug Mills/The New York Times poses a challenge for political analysts who must recognise the severe threat he poses to American democracy while not being overly alarmist about what he may actually accomplish. Trump’s re-election undoubtedly represents a dangerous drift toward right-wing authoritarianism in the US and the world. Yet he will likely fall short of enacting his full agenda; those parts he does achieve may quickly make him unpopular. The Republican party is disorganised and demoralised. His party will control both houses of Congress. Yet his power will be more constrained than it appears. Republican majorities in Congress are razor-thin. In the US House, Republicans may have a majority of just 220-218 after three Congresspeople are appointed to Trump’s administration and before special elections can be held. House Republicans are a famously fractious faction; not being able to lose a single vote will limit what legislation they can pass in their first 100 days. Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but much legislation there requires a supermajority of 60 to bypass its filibuster rule, which incoming Senate majority leader John Thune promises to retain. It is likely that rifts among Republicans will be exposed this year. About the only things the party unanimously agrees upon are tighter immigration controls and heaping more tax cuts on the wealthy
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