Ukraine war: Where it stands, and what happens next

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Ukraine war: Where it stands, and what happens next
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❝ For Ukrainians, threat of destruction is all too real. From atrocities committed and daily rhetoric of Russian politicians and state media, it is clear that defeat for Ukraine would mean obliteration from the map and the possible genocide of its people

Yet Kharkiv and Dnipro in the east never fell, and neither did Sumy and Chernihiv in the north, nor the southern Black Sea ports of Odesa and Mikolayiv, and in the heart of Ukraine its capital Kyiv held out, and its president Volodymyr Zelenskiy reportedly rejected a US offer of evacuation with the line: “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Perhaps Putin’s intelligence sources and other officials fed him these reassuring stories and never dreamed that their “reports” about Ukraine would be put to the test. When they were, the fiery welcome given to Russia’s troops showed such theories to be an absurd and ultimately disastrous mix of wishful and colonial thinking.

Later in the year, deliveries of more powerful and accurate artillery guns from several Nato states strengthened Ukraine’s military on its eastern and southern plains, and US-made Himars missile systems with an 80km range allowed devastating strikes on Russian supply lines and command posts deep inside occupied territory.

The reality check of the past year has prompted Putin’s regime to adapt its narrative of the war. What was supposed to be a swift “special military operation” to remove “fascists” from power in Kyiv is now framed as an existential struggle for Russia’s future against the might of Nato, echoing the Soviet Union’s role in victory over Nazi Germany.

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