West Bank at risk of even more violence, and events in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria have significantly weakened Iranian regime
Vincent Durac: Even if ceasefire holds, war in Gaza will affect whole region for yearsSixteen days after the beginning of the first stage, by February 4th, negotiations are to begin on the second stage, during which, it is envisaged, a permanent ceasefire will be established, the remaining living hostages will be released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners and a complete withdrawal of Israel i forces from Gaza.
According to the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs, from October 7th, 2023, to the end of 2024, there were at least 1,860 incidents of settler violence in the West Bank, an average of four per day. In addition, over the course of the past year, Israel has confiscated more land in the West Bank than in the previous 20 years combined, according to the Israeli Peace Now movement.
After two years of stasis, Lebanon finally has a new prime minister and a new president committed, ostensibly at least, to political and economic reform. In this setting and given the terms of the ceasefire agreement with Israel, which envisages an enhanced role for the Lebanese army in the south, Hizbullah may face renewed calls to disarm.
Assad’s intent to distance himself from Tehran became clear when he expelled the Houthis from the Yemeni embassy in Damascus just one day after the war in Gaza began. Days later he handed control of the embassy to the Saudi-backed government in Yemen. In addition, there were widespread suspicions in Iran of Syrian complicity in Israeli strikes on Iranian assets in Syria.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insists that the Axis of Resistance has not collapsed, asserting that it takes the form of faith and commitment that grows stronger under pressure and will ultimately succeed in expelling the US from the region. But, undoubtedly, Iran and its allies cannot play the same role in the region as they have done in the recent past.
Gaza-Strip Hamas Israel Hizbullah West-Bank Iran Syria Donald-Trump Binyamin-Netanyahu Ali-Khamenei Houthi Palestine
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