The country’s 84-year-old ruler may hang on for years yet. But whatever the shape of the transition, it could well be messy. Even religious-minded Iranians have begun to lose faith in theocracy
as an ayatollah, the clergy’s highest rank, but has never held an official post and is rarely seen in public. Many regime stalwarts dislike the prospect of a dynastic succession: their revolution was founded on the overthrow of a shah.. It now has the whip-hand over the clerics. For three decades Mr Khamenei has built up its power as a defence against his rivals among the clergy—and against the risk of opposition in the street.
That process may have begun. The morality police often leave unveiled women alone. But repression against dissent and crime is as harsh as ever. Executions rose last year by more than 80%, to 576. If an authoritarianregime were to bring back stability while relaxing personal mores, many Iranians might accept it.IRGC
or the clergy. Earlier this year, a former president, Muhammad Khatami, called for “a fundamental transformation”. A popular former presidential candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, broke his silence after 12 years of house arrest to call for a referendum on whether to keep Iran as an Islamic republic. Whatever the shape of the transition, it could well be messy. Only one thing is certain, says Mr Fahas, who is close to clerics within the regime. Mr Khamenei will be “the last real”. In other words, rule by clerics as envisaged by the 1979 revolution’s founding father will be over.
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