Conquering Mariupol is central to Vladimir Putin’s “plan B”
Photo: Maximilian Clarke / Story Picture Agency via Shutterstock When Vladimir Putin launched this invasion of Ukraine, he described it as a humanitarian mission aimed at saving Russian-speaking Ukrainians from “genocide.” Yet Putin’s military is currently concentrating its most savage violence on the Russian-speaking city of Mariupol.
These developments may puzzle a lay observer. Why would Russia concentrate its wrath on what was once a bastion of pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine? And why would the Ukrainian government refuse to surrender the city given the harrowing humanitarian implications of holding out and Russia’s overwhelming strength in the part of eastern Ukraine where Mariupol sits?
This proved to be a catastrophic mistake. More than three weeks into the war, Russia has yet to secure control of a single major Ukrainian city, even as it has lost upwards of 7,000 troops. The Russian military faces grave logistical challenges and morale problems, along with a shortage of precision-guided munitions; meanwhile, western sanctions are devastating the Russian economy.
Mariupol is critical to this plan B. As The Wall Street Journal illustrates, Mariupol sits directly between Russian-annexed Crimea and the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. If Russia can secure control of the city and its surrounding area, it can construct a “land bridge” between its two major strongholds in Ukraine.
Mariupol is of considerable importance to the Ukrainian economy. Mariupol is home to the largest port in the Azov Sea region and the only major port that serves the Donetsk and Luhansk areas. If Russia secures Mariupol, it will control 80 percent of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline, enabling it to choke off much of Ukraine’s maritime trade and access to the wider world.
Mariupol’s symbolic significance amplifies its strategic importance. Beyond its geographic and economic importance, Mariupol has symbolic weight in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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