A newly discovered 100-meter-wide asteroid, 2024 YR4, has sparked a global planetary defense response due to its potential collision risk with Earth in 2032. While experts emphasize that the chances of an impact are low, the asteroid's size and trajectory have prompted international space agencies to activate contingency plans and closely monitor its course.
A 100-meter-wide asteroid hurtling towards Earth has triggered a global planetary defense mobilization. Dubbed 2024 YR4 after its discovery by a Chilean telescope last month, the asteroid has been flagged by American and European space agencies as a potential collision risk for Earth in 2032. It has climbed to the top of the impact risk list, but experts are quick to emphasize that a direct strike is highly improbable.
Even if it does collide with Earth, the consequences wouldn't be on the scale of the dinosaur extinction event, which was caused by an asteroid estimated to be up to 15 kilometers wide. Scientists estimate the chances of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth at slightly over one percent. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss,' assured Paul Chodas, head of NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies. 'But it deserves attention,' he added. David Rankin, an engineer at the Catalina Sky Survey, echoed this sentiment, cautioning on Bluesky, 'This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever. Most likely outcome is still a near miss,' reports the Mirror. The emergence of this celestial speedster has prompted two UN-supported global asteroid watchdog groups into action. While the International Asteroid Warning Network is currently monitoring further observations of the asteroid and charting its course, the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group has also been brought into the fold. The two teams are collaborating to assess the likelihood of an asteroid impact and develop a contingency plan, which could include deploying a spacecraft to intercept it—a strategy successfully tested in NASA's DART mission. The asteroid's trajectory is under meticulous observation as it orbits the sun, but it is expected to disappear from view in the coming months, according to NASA and the European Space Agency. Until then, some of the world's most advanced telescopes will continue to track it, aiming to pinpoint its exact size and orbit. Once it vanishes, it won't be visible again until its return in 2028. The space rock made a close approach, passing within about 500,000 miles of Earth on Christmas Day—roughly double the distance to the moon—and was spotted two days later. Paul Chodas, a scientist, explained that experts are currently examining sky surveys from 2016, when the asteroid is believed to have come close as well. If they can locate the asteroid in those past images, they'll be better equipped to predict whether it poses a threat to our planet. 'If we don't find that detection, the impact probability will just move slowly as we add more observations,' he stated. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), Earth is struck by an asteroid of this magnitude every few thousand years, causing significant damage. This is why this particular asteroid now tops ESA's risk list. The potential impact date is scheduled for December 22, 2032. However, it is too early to predict where it might land if it does hit Earth. On a more reassuring note, NASA assures that currently, no other known large asteroids pose more than a one percent probability of impact.
ASTEROID SPACE ROCK 2024 YR4 PLANETARY DEFENSE COLLISION RISK EARTH IMPACT NASA ESA
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